Table of contents:
- Flattening the pandemic curve, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19
- 1,024,298
- 831,330
- 28,855
- Why do we need to flatten the pandemic curve?
- Has this method ever been proven to work?
Campaign 'flatten the curve'Or flattening the pandemic curve has recently been popular on social media following the high number of COVID-19 cases in several countries. This movement is considered to be able to effectively inhibit the spread of the outbreak, and even reduce the risk of death for patients who are positive for COVID-19.
In just under a month, the number of people with COVID-19 has multiplied from around 75,000 to more than 180,000. If each individual wants to take part in this movement, the COVID-19 outbreak is actually very possible to be overcome. So, what does it mean to flatten the pandemic curve?
Flattening the pandemic curve, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 outbreak, governments in various countries have appealed to the public to carry out activities at home and not travel for at least the next 14 days. This appeal was greeted with various responses from the community.
Many companies allow their employees to work in their own homes. Schools dismiss students, colleges hold classes on line, and many major events were canceled. Places of worship, restaurants and shops have also been temporarily closed. This is actually a real form of social distancing.
COVID-19 Outbreak updates Country: IndonesiaData1,024,298
Confirmed831,330
Recovered28,855
DeathDistribution MapSocial distancing is an effort to prevent the spread of disease by limiting contact with other people, closing public facilities, and avoiding crowds. Epidemiologists see social distancing as an attempt to flatten the pandemic curve, or 'flatten the curve’.
Drew Harris, a researcher at the Thomas Jefferson University of Philadelphia, drew up a pandemic curve to explain its importance social distancing in handling outbreaks. On his chart, Harris illustrates how social distancing can reduce the number of infected people and keep hospital capacity adequate.
Why do we need to flatten the pandemic curve?
Pandemic curves refer to the estimated number of people who will be infected with COVID-19 over a period of time. This curve does not predict how many people will be infected, but is used to estimate the likelihood of spreading the virus.
Here's the pandemic curve that Harris was referring to.
On the curve, the green line shows the hospital capacity. Yellow and red dots below the green line represent COVID-19 patients receiving medical attention. Meanwhile, the red dots above the green line are patients who are not accommodated by the hospital.
Think of the hospital as a train, and it is a busy time when passengers are at their peak. The train capacity is so limited that once the train is full, the passengers have to wait a very long time. In fact, there may even be passengers who cannot be transported by the train.
Hospitals also face the same problem. Every day, the hospital welcomes dozens of patients with various conditions. Now, hospitals are getting full due to the increase in COVID-19 patients. This is the root of the problem which is the reason why we have to flatten the pandemic curve.
If many people catch COVID-19 at the same time, hospitals will not be able to accommodate patients. The number of patients who die will also increase. An undetected patient can also infect other people without realizing it.
The risk of transmission decreases when people do social distancing. By staying at home, you are less likely to catch or infect other people. COVID-19 can still spread, but it's not spreading as badly as before.
The number of patients infected with COVID-19 may remain the same, but medical personnel have more time to treat patients. They also face less stress than when treating multiple patients at once.
The red dots on the chart that initially go up a steep slope will become more gentle. Gradually, most or all of the dots will be below the green line. This means that every COVID-19 patient can get the medical care he needs.
Has this method ever been proven to work?
In 1918, there was a Spanish flu pandemic. Two US states, namely Philadelphia and St. Louis, deal with it in a different way. The Philadelphia government at that time ignored outbreak warnings and continued to hold a massive parade.
In just 48-72 hours, thousands of Philadelphia residents caught the Spanish flu and died. In the end, some 16,000 people in the region died within six months.
Meanwhile, the government of St. Louis immediately imposed a quarantine. They close schools, encourage hygiene, and adopt behaviors social distancing. As a result, there were only 2,000 deaths in the region.
The COVID-19 outbreak until Wednesday (18/3) has caused more than 8,000 deaths worldwide, as reported by Worldometer data. The concrete steps that can now be taken are flattening the pandemic curve to curb the spread of disease.
Do it social distancing by staying at home and avoiding crowds. In addition, make sure you also take preventive measures such as washing your hands, using hand sanitizer, and maintain health so that the benefits are more optimal.
